In the last few days, the Russians have set up so-called ‘safe zones’ in Syria. These are areas where military activity has been quelled and is unlikely to be able to form a resurgence. A question from a friend of min on Facebook asked if the Americans are likely to respect these zones, given the fact that the Americans will be denied any right to fly over them.
If the Americans intrude in one of these safe zones – and please remember they’re supporting the terrorists – then they really have no business there. The Americans aren’t bringing peace, are they? They’re nuisances and aiding other nuisances, and since there are clearly no nuisances in these safe zones, they have no need to be there.
Now, if an American should violate that airspace, Russia really will throw something at them. This will all be planned out, and the response won’t be military. It can’t be. The Russians have to be patient, they have to be polite – yet all of these things rile the Americans like nothing else!
It all began when America sent some Tomahawk cruise missiles to Syria in a reminder to Assad that he shouldn’t make himself the target of a fake news story about chemical weapons. Assad could do little about the press lying about the things he did, but then, that’s life. The problem for America was that Russia wasn’t very happy with what America had done or the reasons for doing them.
Russia couldn’t hit back militarily because America’s media would have a field day. As a friend mentioned to me earlier this evening,
“I can only imagine the anti-Russian propaganda shit storm that would follow their shooting down an American plane. People here are deeply, thoroughly convinced of American beneficence.”
I will add that at the time of the missile strike, there was a lot of noise from the American media about what form Russia’s military response would take. The Americans are so certain about the way they do war, that there are no possible alternatives.
The Problem For The Americans.
The Americans are used to being boss, and used to telling everybody else what to do and how to do it. If they disagree, bombs are dropped on them as a quiet reminder that they’re not behaving in the way America wants them to.
In the last month the Russians have honed their secret weapon, international law. Whilst America stamps around the world in an attempt to force it down other countries’ throats, there is very little that is legal about the Americans’ activities. Indeed, it has been a very long time since the Americans bothered about legalities, international or otherwise. For them, power is all, and power is what they use.
Russia has, however, discovered America’s weakness: there’s nothing the Americans can do about international law. Especially when it’s an element of international law that the Americans have signed up to in order to force their way on other people.
The Russians were very clever: they retaliated in a way that really kicked the American military squarely in the nuts. The Americans were expecting a military response, and nothing else. The problem was that the Americans had signed up to a ‘deconfliction agreement’ which meant all sides declare the flight paths of their military aircraft so that nobody gets hurt.
“Under the deconfliction agreement, set up in the fall of 2015, U.S. and Russian forces can communicate via a flight safety hotline run out of the Combined Air Operations Center at U.S. Central Command.”
This may seem trivial, it may seem a small point, but it is an important one and the Americans’ reaction to the Russians would be crucial for the Russians to determine the power of their new found strength.
You see, the Russians withdrew from this agreement.
What could the Americans do? They had gambled on the Russians wanting to start WW3 and all they do is sit back and refuse to answer the telephone. You see, because I’ll tell you from personal experience: if someone wants an aggressive response from you, the best way to frustrate them is to sit still and do nothing. It’s an old strategy, but for aggressive people, it still works a treat. The Americans already had bloodshot eyes from straining at the leash for too long and needed to attack something to keep up their morale.
And here are the Russians saying ‘you and who’s army?’
American flights over Syria were suspended; the Belgian air force – I’ll bet you didn’t know the Belgians were bombing Syria illegally as well as the Yanks, did you? – the Belgians said they would stop all operations in Syria indefinitely. A few days later the Americans made a few tentative strikes into Syrian airspace, but the effect of the Russians’ act was clear. They’d scared the bejesus out of the Americans. And they’d done it just by sitting down and not doing anything at all.
The the Russians ‘painted’ an American fighter jet. That is to say, they locked a radar onto it. Not a nice thing for a jet jockey to experience: it’s possible to detect when a radar’s locked onto your jet. That’s the easy bit. The hard bit is knowing there’s a missile at the other end of that radar beam. Countermeasures or not, a missile might just get through. For the jet jockey this is getting a little too personal, and for all his going out in a blaze of glory in starting WW3, he would still be roast pork by the time he hit the ground. No more Christmasses at home in Nowhere, S. Dakota.
Americans are not Vietnamese, and are extremely sensitive to their own personal existence. And the Russians know this. Whilst the American military can treat their soldiers like cattle in a slaughter house during a real war, shine a spotlight on one of them when they’re on their own in a place where they shouldn’t be, and the situation is very different.
That’s when they feel an expanding, slimy bulge between their bottom and the seat they’re sitting in. And there’s nothing they can do about it. It’s how they’re made. When it’s war, it’s different, they’re fighting for king and country – or whatever it is that Americans fight for. God only knows what that is, but they sure can fight. Without that, they’re kinda lost and a little nervous. Well, the Russians know this too.
Rex Tillerson arrived in Moscow the next week for one of his regular meetings with Lavrov, his counterpart. Tillerson usually arrives with an armful of threats and warnings. This time he came to be told what the Americans would have to sign up to in order for the Russians to re-instigate the hotline.
What else could Tillerson do?
He had walked into the Russians’ trap! Tillerson was so desperate to get the American air raids on the road again, he’d sign anything.
And he did.
The problem here is subtle: the Russians are going to hold him – and his government to their word. Now this isn’t something the Americans are used to: they usually tell people to stop doing the very things the Americans are doing. Dealing with people who argue from a simple yet robust diplomatic standpoint is something the Americans have little experience of, mainly because in the past they’ve been able to bomb people to agree with them.
The Americans can’t bomb Russia for trying to uphold international law, when they’re in the business of forcing this on the rest of the world! Since this is the stated policy of the Americans, there is literally nothing they can do if someone holds them to account in the way the Russians are doing.
The other side of this coin is that whilst the likes of Rex Tillerson is desperate to sign something so that the American military can do something. And all that time, he’s digging a deeper diplomatic hole for himself. You can’t bomb Russia for doing the very thing you are trying to force them to agree to…
The Only Way Out.
It’s what the Americans have started all their wars with: incontrovertible evidence of wrongdoing. That this ‘evidence’ didn’t exist, as was the case in the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964 or Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction means nothing. The American people bought these lies because they’ll buy anything that makes them feel better in a country that’s got its boot on their necks.
Russia has literally no defence against the fertile imagination of the Americans that can prove you guilty of something you didn’t do. Something you had no idea that you could do. It’s how they nailed Michael Flynn.
I just hope that the Russians have enough S-400s to stop the American’s ballistic missiles before they destroy us all.